Italo Salgado

Run TNO classification in Claude

You want to make a classification of your actually state of your country? You lack a well know labels for every state? I tell to claude to classificate the countries with the labels of The New Order: Last Days of Europe game. This is the result:

Classifying Real-World Countries with TNO Ideologies (2025)

What if we took the ideology system from The New Order: Last Days of Europe and applied it to real countries today?

The Hearts of Iron IV mod TNO features a detailed political ideology spectrum that goes well beyond the vanilla game's simplistic four-way split. After the Toolbox Theory rework, the mod uses 11 ideology groups arranged roughly from left to right:

Communism โ†’ Socialism โ†’ Progressivism โ†’ Liberalism โ†’ Liberal Conservatism โ†’ Conservatism โ†’ Paternalism โ†’ Despotism โ†’ Ultranationalism โ†’ Fascism โ†’ National Socialism (+ Esoteric Nazism at the extreme)

I thought it'd be an interesting exercise to map 15 real-world countries (as of 2025) onto this spectrum. Here's what I came up with.


The TNO Ideology Cheat Sheet

Before we get into the classification, here's a quick refresher on what each relevant ideology means in TNO terms:

Ideology TNO Definition
Progressivism Social democracy, welfare-state advocacy, reform-oriented leftism. Think expanded social programs and workers' rights within a democratic system.
Liberalism Democratic consent of the governed, individual rights, capitalism with governmental oversight, universal suffrage. The "sane center" of TNO's democratic world.
Liberal Conservatism Conservative policies blended with liberalism. Free-market economics, traditional values, but operating firmly within democratic norms. Includes Market Liberalism.
Conservatism Promotes traditional social institutions, hierarchy, authority, property rights. Seeks to preserve religion, parliamentary government, and social stability.
Paternalism Strong executive power with some democratic elements (parliament, elections), but their real impact on governance varies. Ranges from presidential dictatorships to military mandates. Formerly called "Authoritarian Democracy."
Despotism Single-leader rule across a wide range: absolute monarchies, theocracies, military dictatorships, centrist dictatorships. Elections are either absent or purely decorative.

I'm skipping Communism, Socialism, Ultranationalism, Fascism, National Socialism, and Esoteric Nazism because โ€” thankfully โ€” no country on this list maps to those categories in 2025.


The Classification

Democratic Spectrum (Progressivism โ†’ Conservatism)

Country TNO Ideology Reasoning
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ Spain Progressivism Sรกnchez's PSOE-Sumar coalition: welfare expansion, labor reforms, social justice legislation within a parliamentary democracy.
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Chile Progressivism Boric's government pursues expanded social programs, labor reforms, and progressive social policies. Solid democratic framework.
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง UK Progressivism / Liberalism Starmer's Labour leans Progressivism (workers' rights, NHS investment). The institutional baseline (parliamentary democracy, common law, market economy) is Liberalism.
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท France Liberalism Macron's centrist, pro-EU, market-friendly but socially liberal governance. Strong democratic institutions with capitalist economy and state oversight.
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช Germany Liberalism / Lib. Conservatism Federal parliamentary system, social market economy, robust welfare state. CDU-led coalitions emphasize market economics with social guardrails.
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Canada Liberalism Strong democratic institutions, universal healthcare, multicultural policies. The structural center of gravity sits in Liberalism regardless of governing party.
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฑ Poland Liberalism After the Tusk coalition replaced PiS (late 2023), Poland shifted back toward EU-aligned rule of law and liberal-democratic norms. Recovering from a Paternalism/Conservatism phase.
๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต Japan Liberal Conservatism LDP dominance for decades. Functional parliamentary democracy with socially conservative values (immigration, family) combined with liberal economic policy. Textbook Lib-Con.
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ท Argentina Liberal Conservatism Milei governs on an explicitly libertarian platform: radical deregulation, free-market economics, privatization โ€” all within democratic institutions. Market Liberalism sits under Lib-Con in TNO's taxonomy. Over 1,200 deregulations implemented, midterm elections held normally, Congress functions.
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น Italy Conservatism Meloni's Fratelli d'Italia: national identity, traditional values, immigration restriction, Atlanticist foreign policy โ€” all within democratic institutions.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ USA Conservatism (โ†’ Paternalism) Full democratic institutions remain, but the Trump administration's emphasis on tradition, strong executive action, and nationalist rhetoric fits Conservatism. Expansion of executive power and pressure on institutional checks push it toward the Paternalism border.

Authoritarian Spectrum (Paternalism โ†’ Despotism)

Country TNO Ideology Reasoning
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ฌ Egypt Despotism (borderline Paternalism) El-Sisi holds elections and has a parliament, but opposition candidates are routinely jailed, press freedom is minimal, and the military dominates. Token democratic structures keep it near the Paternalism line.
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ Russia Despotism Nominal democratic structures exist (elections, the Duma), but opposition is suppressed, media is state-controlled, and power is concentrated around Putin. Ultranationalist rhetoric around Ukraine could push it further right, but the regime's core logic is personal power consolidation.
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Saudi Arabia Despotism Absolute monarchy under MBS. No meaningful elections, no political parties, no legislative opposition. Vision 2030 modernization doesn't change the political structure.
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ China Despotism (nominally Communist) The CCP officially adheres to Marxism-Leninism, but actual governance โ€” state capitalism, no democratic participation, power concentration under Xi, surveillance state โ€” is Despotism in practice. Communist rhetoric, Despotic reality.

The Spectrum Visualization

LEFT โ—„โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ–บ RIGHT

PROG        LIB         LIB-CON      CON         PATERN    DESPOT
 โ”‚           โ”‚             โ”‚           โ”‚            โ”‚          โ”‚
Spain      France        Japan       Italy        ยทยทยท       Russia
Chile      Germany       Argentina   USAโ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ”€โ–บ          Saudi Arabia
UK         Canada                                          China
           Poland                                          Egypt

Some Observations

The democratic world clusters tightly. All Western democracies fall between Progressivism and Conservatism โ€” just four ideology steps apart. The biggest debates in these countries (welfare vs. austerity, progressive vs. traditional values) are minor shifts on the TNO scale.

The Paternalism gap is real. There's a noticeable jump between the democratic bloc and the authoritarian one. Few countries in this list sit comfortably in Paternalism โ€” they're either clearly democratic or clearly despotic. The USA's trend toward executive power concentration is the closest any Western democracy gets to that line.

Nobody reaches Fascism or beyond. Despite heated political rhetoric in many countries, none of these 15 nations map to Ultranationalism, Fascism, National Socialism, or Esoteric Nazism. In the real 2025 world, that's a good thing.

China is the hardest to classify. Its official ideology (Communism) and its actual governance (Despotism) point in completely different directions on the TNO spectrum. TNO itself deals with this tension โ€” the mod is full of nominally one thing, functionally another.

Argentina is the wildcard. Milei's radical libertarianism is hard to place in any political taxonomy, but TNO's inclusion of Market Liberalism under Liberal Conservatism actually makes it a surprisingly clean fit.


Disclaimer: This is a fun thought experiment, not rigorous political science. TNO ideologies were designed for a fictional 1960s alt-history, and mapping them to 2025 reality is inherently approximate. Reasonable people can disagree on placements โ€” especially for borderline cases like the USA or Egypt.